SOME HOLIDAY CHEER
The ebb and flow of consumer behavior in Mammoth is notoriously unpredictable, with factors like snow conditions making or breaking the outcome of holiday sales periods. So, on New Year’s Day, I set out to talk to local business owners and learn how they navigate the complexities of running businesses on such fickle ground.
Some owners were eager to share their insights, while others had already left for the day, and a few were too busy to indulge the press.
Silver Chesak, the owner of Footloose Sports, was one of the more forthcoming business owners. We spoke for nearly an hour, during which he revealed that his sales this season are the third highest ever recorded for this time period.
Chesak mainly credited consistent snowfall for the increase. With holiday rain in Tahoe and dry conditions at Big Bear, visitors from the Bay Area and Los Angeles have flocked to Mammoth in search of softer snow, leading to many repeat customers.
“Once people come up here and ski once, we get a pretty consistent customer base,” he explained.
Karen Crabb, owner of the decor shop Eastern Sierra Mountain Club, observed similar trends, noting an increase in visitors attracted by the superior snow on Mammoth Mountain compared to Tahoe. She suggested that the election year might have influenced spending patterns, as many seemed more inclined to open their wallets, perhaps fueled by hopes that inflation could decrease under the new federal administration.
However, research indicates that the relationship between consumer sentiment and actual spending is far more complex. The challenge lies in disentangling perceptions of economic conditions from genuine spending behavior. Consumer sentiment has fluctuated significantly over the past six decades, as documented by the University of Michigan. Their findings show that major events often lead to declines in sentiment, yet the correlation between sentiment data and actual consumer spending remains pretty elusive.
A team of researchers explored this disconnect in the lead-up to the 2016 election, finding little evidence linking sentiment to spending behavior. While individuals may feel pessimistic about economic policies when their political party loses power, this sentiment doesn’t significantly impact household spending.
However, socioeconomic conditions cannot be overlooked: factors like personal finances and local environment play a substantial role in driving consumer behavior, the researchers found.
In Mammoth, many retailers sell the same products to the same audience, all striving to stay competitive—especially in relation to Mammoth Mountain’s services and staff, which can offer high base wages and immediate convenience.
And on top of that, business owners in Mammoth aren’t just competing with local shops; they’re also up against ski retailers nationwide.
Chesak described the competition between outdoor retailers—and with the mountain—as a “friendly” one, where each shop finds its niche and collaborates to strengthen tourism in the town.
To maintain sales at Footloose, Chesak tries to stay acutely aware of the latest trends and innovations in the ski industry, as understanding these dynamics can significantly influence a customer’s purchasing decision. For example, ski boot sales have surged this season, largely due to innovations like the boa lacing system, he said.
However, the pandemic complicated these trend predictions. The industry dipped from 2020 to 2021, then surged in 2022 and 2023, according to data from the National Ski Areas Association. This data correlates with investments and acquisitions from ski conglomerates Vail and Alterra, and aligns with the town’s TOT revenue patterns, which also saw a post-pandemic boom.
The challenge is that what goes up must also come down, and this high isn’t expected to last forever, especially as the pandemic recedes and and Uncle Sam tightens the spigot.
This uncertainty complicates demand predictions. Last season, Footloose miscalculated demand and overstocked its inventory, Chesak said. From his understanding, lots of retailers made the same mistake, and now the market is saturated with new, season-old skis.
Chesak’s staff managed the overstock, but this year, they opted for a more conservative stock approach. Services like ski repairs have become significant and consistent income streams, performing well this winter due to wear and tear from early season conditions.
Rick from Rick’s Sporting Goods offered a more succinct take on the season, stating that business is good and they’ve stayed busy. He relies on word-of-mouth marketing and doesn’t advertise much beyond that.
“The rush started a little later than usual because of school schedules,” he said, noting that repeat customers account for 80% of his business, with some customers remaining loyal across generations—insulating him somewhat from industry fluctuations.
Just a few doors down, Sun & Ski Sports was sold out of rental equipment in every size by the time I visited in the late afternoon. Manager Jose Solorio explained that they base their inventory predictions on historical data.
Certain items, like sleds, sell consistently every year, while others require more guesswork. “Every year, we look at our numbers for brands by style,” Solorio said. “If we sell a lot of a certain brand, we order more from them.”
At the end of the day, I didn’t encounter any businesses complaining about the season’s start, and only time will tell how this momentum carries after the holidays.
