SHORT-TIMERS
On Tuesday evening, residents and realtors filled the June Lake Community Center to discuss one of Mono County’s most divisive issues: short-term rentals (STRs).
The consultant declared STRs do not have an impact on affordable housing.
The Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors contracted independent analysts to assess the economic impacts of STRs as county leaders weigh the possibility of adding new restrictions.
“The first thing to get off the table is the assumption that STRs take away affordable housing,” began Jack Graecen, Founding Partner and CEO of AEG Policy Advisors, “That is, by and large, not true.”
The survey wasn’t finished by the time of the talk, so Graecen drew mainly on his years of research from other recreation-based towns. Across the board, he said, municipalities blame STRs for their housing problems because they don’t want to develop more housing.
“The reality,” he said, “is that in 20-30 years, the rest of Mono County will look similar to Mammoth. Probably similar to Park City, Utah.”
With the U.S. population rapidly increasing (according to Garecen and not birth rates) housing demand is growing everywhere, especially in resort areas. Graecen’s studies show thousands of new homes are needed in every comparable market to Mono County. But instead of building, communities point to STRs as the culprit.
Graecen says they’re not to blame.
In Mono County, 60% of homes sit vacant part or all of the year. If STRs stopped operating, 80% of their owners say the homes would also sit empty.
Of those who would sell, most would take the best offer, likely one by another second-homeowner.
“Almost none” would rent long-term, he said, because the rent payments aren’t enough of an incentive. Plus, long-term rentals take away the opportunity for the owners to vacation at the property whenever they want to.
Most STR owners, about 90%, are individuals who use the property part-time.
Because of this, Graecen warned that STR caps, bans or deed restrictions shrink local revenue and push property sales to high-income buyers without meaningfully increasing housing for locals.
Furthermore, he refuted the claim that STRs meaningfully drive up housing costs, and said the math didn’t add up to support that assumption.
By his figures, STRs only increase housing prices by 1.14% in a marketplace, and increase rental costs by just 0.79% annually.
When it was time for questions, one attendee asked if Graecen found anything that does work to increase the affordable housing stock.
“We have to build housing,” he responded. “And if we don’t, it’s going to be really interesting to see how everything plays out.”
Then, Mono County Supervisor Paul McFarland clarified that the County is not proposing getting rid of all STRs, just not allowing new ones.
Graecen laughed, and said every elected official tells him that, but that plan still leads to fewer STRs over time. And revenue. Less revenue equates to fewer jobs. So on and so forth.
“In the back of your mind, there is still an arbitrary total percent of housing you allow to be STRs in your community” he said. “It’s a slow wave. A death of a thousand cuts. But you end up in the same spot.”
Graecen reemphasized that he sees no way around development. Sitting behind McFarland, local contractor Don Morton, chimed in.
“The county’s approach is narrow in that it’s just focused on restricting STRs,” he said. “It doesn’t take in the whole picture […] the focus of the county, from my experience, is restricting new development.”
McFarland responded that Mono County doesn’t have the same land ownership patterns as other places because there is limited private land. Graecen was sympathetic, and said he understood California was harder and more expensive to build in. But he wasn’t sold on the idea it couldn’t be done.
This prompted McFarland to go on a digression about how the story of STRs goes beyond the economic aspect, and that it’s a “people’s story,” too.
Later, he brought up a report from the California Association of Realtors naming Mono County the least affordable in the state. That mattered, he said, because, “Valuation means more to the community as a whole than just to the folks who look at real estate as an investment.”
