Is the unthinkable thinkable?
It was unthinkable until now that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. It had been unthinkable in 2007 that she would not win in 2008, but the unthinkable did happen. This, of course, made the unthinkable even more unthinkable in 2015. Surely, any observer could reasonably conclude, she would not make the same mistakes again.
As I write this, Mrs. Clinton dominates the polling for her party’s nomination by a very wide margin. She defeats any visible Republican opponent in almost every poll (although her margins have been slipping noticeably in recent days.) She has been until just now the frontrunner’s idea of a frontrunner, and no one since Dwight Eisenhower has seemed more inevitable for a party nomination in a race for president with no incumbent running.
Nevertheless, Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy is now in some trouble. The furor over her use of a private e-mail while she was U.S. secretary of state will almost certainly pass, but it certainly should have passed sooner. While prima facie improper, it is not in itself (with the information we now have) disqualifying.
It might be important to note that Mrs. Clinton’s problem is not about making new political mistakes. Her biggest problems seem to be about what she cannot now control or explain away, that is, actions in her long record as a public figure. While it seemed to be a clever strategy for her (and her husband, the former president) to design in 2008-09, that is, to accept the position of secretary of state in the Obama administration, her performance in that office, and under that president, seems to have reopened and magnified political weaknesses from her past, including her record of judgment, her propensity for secrecy, her dependence on others to cover up her mistakes, and the untransparent institution and controversies of the giant Clinton Foundation which she now heads with her husband.
It is possible, of course, that Hillary Clinton can still be the Democratic nominee for president; and even possible that Republicans will make such a mess of their current opportunity so that she wins the presidency next November. There is no incontrovertible evidence in the polls that she cannot still win.
But it is becoming clear that her Republican opponents will have much from Mrs. Clinton’s past and present to bring up to the voters, and should the unthinkable happen, i.e., a bitter nomination contest in which case there would be much her potential opponents from her own party could use against her, With former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley now moving toward a Democratic nomination contest; Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren already quite popular in the party’s grass roots base; Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also making noises to her left; former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, a populist, waiting in the wings; a very possibly formidable
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo also in the wings; and Vice President Joe Biden desperate for a good reason to stay in the race; the chemistry of the 2016 race for the Democratic nomination could become a genuine contest in a short period of time.
I point out to the reader how quickly Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has emerged as a first tier candidate in the GOP contest; how quickly New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has (at leas temporarily) faded in the polls. (I might add, how quickly he could re-emerge once the debates begin.) With almost a year until the primaries and caucuses, the Republican contest is clearly unsettled. In the face of Mrs. Clinton’s weak performance so far, the general lack of true enthusiasm for her nomination, and now the recurring controversies, it might be very soon that the Democratic contest could be also considered unsettled.
Until now, it was unthinkable to say that Hilary Clinton’s nomination was not “a done deal.” There might still be a deal done on her behalf, she might yet still be president, but I think there are some very smart Democratic leaders and strategists now suddenly at least thinking about the unthinkable.
