Page 2: Fun with numbers

Now I’m well aware that salesmen (and I count myself among them) may sometimes exaggerate the value of their wares, but recently, I was alerted to an ROI Study posted on the Mammoth Lakes Tourism website which may take exaggeration to a new level.

The study claims “every dollar spent on marketing campaigns directly returns $176 in visitor spending.”

How did they come up with that? 36% of survey respondents (and I’ll get to the survey in a moment) claimed they were influenced to come to Mammoth Lakes because of the advertising.

Calculating 36% of approx. $479 million in visitor spending in Mammoth Lakes, they get about $173 million, divide that by the direct marketing budget, and voila – every time John Urdi touches a dollar, he puts Jesus to shame given the scope of his return.

So how’d they come up with the survey sample. Oh, an email with a survey link was sent to everyone who signed up for the Mammoth Lakes newsletter.

And a postcard with the survey link was directly mailed to people who had requested a Visitor’s Guide be mailed to them.

Finally,. the survey link was posted on MLT’s Facebook account.

So, we have a sample of people who have already expressed interest in Mammoth Lakes. So much so that they agree to let us send them marketing materials and email blasts.

We take credit for their interest, take 100% credit for the advertising they liked (never mind if they had happened to stumble upon some other entity’s advertising, like MMSA) and make the outlandish assumption that all the spending in Mammoth Lakes is made by visitors. Locals apparently don’t shop locally or pay sales tax.

Imagine if I gave you the following sales pitch. The Mountain had a very successful SuperMoon viewing party at the summit last weekend. Evans told me it drew about 1,500 people.

MMSA ran a $189 ad in last week’s paper promoting the event.

I choose to take full credit for the attendance of every single person, never mind the Mountain’s email blasts or Facebook posts or whether the ad may have run in other local media. As far as I’m concerned, it was all Sheet.

So I’ll take credit for the $15 gondola rides (now kids rode free, so I would assume they probably only sold 1,200 rides @ $15 = $18,000), the food and beverages consumed during the event (let’s assume 1,500 people at $10 apiece = $15,000), the 146 windbreaker shells ($10,000) sold at various sporting good stores the day of, the 47 sets of binoculars ($5,000), the 85 Mammoth sweatshirts ($2,000), even the four packages of Trojans ($40) sold to hopeful boyfriends seeking to score on the romantic ride down the gondola.

So if I do all that, claiming $50,000 in tourist spending off just a simple $189 ad, one gets a return on Sheet advertising of about $265 for every dollar spent. Clearly folks, there is no need for a TBID when you can spend money on a TedBID instead.

Spouting ridiculous numbers in an ROI study is to be expected, perhaps, when an entity like MLT seeks to justify itself and convince the public that its marketing strategy will pay dividends. However, now that we’ve been convinced, I suppose it’s time to get down to the business of full budget disclosure and transparency, well-advertised (and public) board meetings, and some real community engagement regarding MLT’s goals and mission. The MLT Industry Insider website is a nice start, and they’ve got hard-working, dedicated  employees like Christie Osborne and Lara Kaylor doing good things. But a broader vision has not been articulated, and the troops on the ground (local business owners) are growing restless.

And from Evans desk …

 

Charlene Wardlow, the Director of Business Development at Ormat, presented an update of the Casa Diablo IV geothermal plant project at the Mammoth Lakes Contractors Association meeting at Giovanni’s on Thursday and addressed concerns about local geothermal well construction.

Wardlow, who is based in Reno, has been working on the project for seven years. She told the Association there “is no documented effects in 30 years of operation” of the existing Ormat geothermal facilities, implying that the proposed project would also have no effect on Mammoth groundwater supplies.

Wardlow said the binary technology Ormat uses is not enough for a steam turbine, which would create a plume of vapor above the plant. Instead “100 percent of the geothermal fluid goes back into the geothermal reservoir. There is zero consumption of water. That’s what makes it sustainable.”

Although Ormat is asking to drill 16 wells around Mammoth Lakes, this is an issue that is “being twisted,” Wardlow said.  She explained that each well averages $5 million, and Ormat will build the least amount of wells possible. But they wanted to keep their options open “the entire life of the project.”

Amidst concerns raised by Mammoth Community Water District (MCWD), Wardlow is developing a groundwater monitoring plan which will be completed prior to operation of the plant, as required by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). “We are working with the agencies and meeting with the water district,” she said.

Wardlow outlined the economic benefits Ormat provides for Mono County, including $1.75 million in property taxes since 1984 and 25 full time jobs at the plant. She also said she is pushing to hire more local contractors, which elicited a cynical chuckle from the contracting crowd.

Addressing a question, Wardlow said that the geothermal water “is not drinkable but it is a clean geothermal resource… I don’t know if you could run a [reverse osmosis] system on it and make it drinkable.”

Gordon Alper, MCWD Board Member, also addressed the group after Wardlow’s presentation. “I don’t want you all to go away thinking we’re crazy,” he said. “Our concern is protecting the water we need to support the town even existing. If this water goes away, we’re done.”

“Our experts are in disagreement,” Alper told Wardlow. “But we’d like to work it out. At this point we are just trying to get to a point that we’re taken care of.” Alper said that without MCWD efforts, there would be no monitoring plan and “there still is no mitigation program. The risk to town is sufficient that we will stay involved until we have protection.”

Wardlow said there is a mitigation plan given that the BLM “manages the resources … They have the [authority] to completely shut our operations down. There is mitigation.”

Wardlow said the MCWD’s concerns about the effects of the geothermal wells changing the temperature of the above groundwater was “utterly impossible” to which Alper again said “our experts are in disagreement.”

There is a Long Valley Caldera public workshop on Thursday, August 21 from 1:30-3 in Suite Z. Wardlow said US Geological Service will provide an overview of hazards living in a volcanic area, Ormat will talk about geothermal utilization, there will be an overview of the Long Valley Hydrologic Advisory Committee and MCWD will give an overview of the geology of the groundwater and aquifer.

 

Search and Rescue 

 

On the evening of August 12th at approximately 5:30 p.m., Mono County Sheriff’s Dispatch received a 911 call regarding two lost hikers out of Red’s Meadow.

The hikers were on a day hike from Red’s Meadow to Rainbow Falls. On the return trip, the hikers took the wrong trail and became lost. One of the hikers was diabetic and did not bring any medication on the day hike. The hiker was beginning to feel chilled and experience other negative effects of the diabetes, and since they were lost, wasn’t sure how far they could continue hiking. The other hiker had cell phone reception and was able to call 911 and give their location near Pond Lily Lake, about 5 miles south of Red’s Meadow.

The Mono County Sheriff’s Search and Rescue (SAR) team was called to aid the lost hikers. Six SAR team members staged at Minaret Vista. Due to the medical circumstance, and the hikers remote location, attempts were made to get air support for the rescue. A 551 helicopter from Yosemite National Park was available to assist the SAR team. The helicopter crew was able to fly to the hikers location, land and transport them to the SAR base at Minaret Vista. The diabetic hiker was assessed by Mono County Paramedics and required no further medical treatment. The hikers were taken to their vehicle parked near Mammoth Mountain.