Real estate: Volume rebounds, will prices follow?

LAND SALES

Year                    High              Low             Ave.                  Median                Tot. sales                 Sold

2006                 $4.4M     $300,000     $952,505           $680,000                $34.3M                        36

2007                $2.0M         $215,000   $626,023           $506,000                 $13.1M                        21

2008                $499K         $300,000   $428,700           $487,500                $2.14M                          5

2009                $900K         $190,000   $396,950           $365,000                $3.97M                        10

2010                 $1.1M           $65,000     $359,595           $310,000                $4.32M                         12

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

2006                $2.53M        $450,000  $1.09M                $895,000                $60.1M                        55

2007               $2.50M        $514,000   $1.10M                 $905,000               $43.9M                        40

2008               $4.00M        $292,000   $1.09M                $829,500                $48.1M                         44

2009               $2.95M         $225,000   $817,906           $665,000                $49.9M                         61

2010                $3.60M        $156,000    $893,196           $645,000                $61.6M                         69

CONDO SALES

2006                $2.00M        $218,000    $661,703          $560,000                $247.5M                    374

2007               $2.38M         $219,900     $651,157           $540,700                $181.0M                    278

2008               $2.25M         $149,900     $557,971          $475,000                $114.4M                     205

2009               $1.60M         $100,000    $387,292          $325,000                $114.3M                     295

2010               $1.73M         $84,000       $350,657          $280,000                $131.5M                     375

The above statistics for real estate sales within the Town of Mammoth Lakes come courtesy of Amber Woodruff at Matthew Lehman Appraisal.

As Sheet real estate columnist and RE/MAX of Mammoth Broker/Owner Paul Oster said last week, “The buyers right now …. there’s a reason they have money. They’re smart, discerning … yes, they’re buying because they want that powder run, but it’s a business decision. It’s a discretionary purchase, and they’ll walk away if it’s not right. In fact, that willingness to walk away is a key part of their negotiating strategy.”

This is quite different from the halcyon days of 2005, when people bought things just because they could.

“These buyers have both credit and cash,” said Oster. “And they’re data hounds.”

As Oster scanned some of the numbers above, what caught his attention in particular were the land sale numbers.

“Land sales are dismal right now,” he said. “When the market gets soft, land is where you really get creamed.”

There are a couple of current land listings in the $200’s which Oster thinks are very attractive.

One is a Valley Vista lot next to former Mayor Neil McCarroll’s property, which is listed for $237,000.

“It’s a walk to Chair 15 and you could build a decent home on that lot for $800,000,” he said.

He also liked another lot on Courchevel Court in the Knolls which is currently listed for $249,000.

In the single-family home category, Oster says there is strong activity in the $1-$1.3 million range.

“And we have more modern homes [on the market] selling at or below replacement value,” he said.

In condos, Oster said we’re seeing a return to the “crash pad,” as cash buyers are soaking up low-end units.

Amber Woodruff at Matthew Lehman Appraisal, noted that there have been four single-family homes sold in 2011 at a median sales price of $661,625, which is a 2.6% increase over 2010.

“There are currently seven pending home sales, including short sales subject to bank approval, with a median pending price of $1.1 million,” she added.

There are currently 61 active home listings with a median listing price of $1.1 million.

“Our local team of appraisers started to notice stabilization trends about this time  last year in our statistical tracking,” said Woodruff. “The upper end of the market has really started to recover, particularly for the homes in the $1.5 million-plus range.”